ASCEND
ASCEND-WATCH 2.0 · continuous cadence · 6 weighted factors

Live Edge Alerts

Edge decays. This engine watches the live board continuously and fires when a market crosses the model's fair price — steam moves, injury repricing, prop line shifts and closing-line reports — so you know whether you beat the number or missed it.

Verifying your access…

What lands, and when

The schedule this engine runs on. Every run writes a heartbeat, so if a cycle is late you can see it on the status board rather than guessing.

ContinuousLive scan of every tracked market on the published board.
On triggerAlert with move size, book count, attribution and remaining window.
After closeClosing-line value report on every play you logged.

The factor stack

6 weighted inputs, published in full. Weights sum to 1.0 and are refit against out-of-sample periods — never against the window being reported.

22%Line VelocitySigned move per unit time since publication.
19%Steam ConfirmationNumber of books moving in the same direction inside five minutes.
17%Edge Decay RateRate at which the published edge is being priced away.
14%Limit ResponseWhether limits widened or tightened after the move.
13%News AttributionWhether an injury or lineup release explains the move.
15%Closing WindowTime left before the number is no longer available.
Model card
Alerts settled against the closing number
Model version
ASCEND-WATCH 2.0
Weighted factors
6
Calibrated band
35% – 90%
Kelly fraction
0.25x
Hit rate
63.1%
Brier score
0.2140
  • Line Velocity · 22% weight — Signed move per unit time since publication.
  • Steam Confirmation · 19% weight — Number of books moving in the same direction inside five minutes.
  • Edge Decay Rate · 17% weight — Rate at which the published edge is being priced away.

How a cycle is built

1 · Velocity

Signed move per unit time since publication is measured on every tracked market.

2 · Confirmation

Books moving the same direction inside five minutes separate a repricing from an error correction.

3 · Decay

The rate at which the published edge is being priced away decides whether the value still exists.

4 · Attribution

Injury and lineup releases are matched to the move so a known cause is labelled as such.

5 · Limits

Whether limits widened or tightened afterwards shows how confident the books are in the new number.

6 · Window

Every alert states how long the number is expected to remain available.

Frequently asked questions

What members ask before unlocking Live Edge Alerts.

What triggers an alert?

A move fast enough to matter, confirmed across enough books to rule out one book correcting itself, on a market where the published edge is either eroding or improving.

How is a real move separated from noise?

Steam confirmation counts how many books move the same way inside five minutes, and news attribution checks whether an injury or lineup release explains it. Unexplained one-book moves are usually liquidity.

Does it tell me the outcome?

No. It tells you what moved, by how much, across how many books, and how long the window is open. No alert engine knows results.

How often does it run?

Continuously, not once a day. Its freshness window on the status board is a few hours, so a stalled scanner is flagged as degraded quickly.

The rest of the fleet

Risk disclosure

Ascend publishes quantitative research, not investment or betting advice. Every published call can lose, past model performance does not predict future results, and sizing is your decision. Never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.