UConn — Spread
UConn vs Alabama · College
Rolling Form (L10) and Usage & Role are the dominant drivers (Rolling z=+2.39, Usage z=-1.45, Line z=-1.25). Composite signal +1.14σ against a market implying 59.2%.
- Model win prob.
- 62.8%
- Market implied
- 59.2%
- Edge
- +3.6%
- Kelly stake
- 0.5u
Key statistical drivers
- Rolling Form (L10)z +2.39
- Usage & Rolez -1.45
- Line Movementz -1.25
Why this is a Strong play, not a Value play
Strong plays require both a calibrated win probability at or above the model's conviction floor and agreement across the top-weighted signals. Here the model lands at 62.8% against an implied 59.2%, giving a wide pricing gap the market has not corrected. Rolling Form (L10), Usage & Role, Line Movement all push the same direction, so there is no internal disagreement to discount — which is why the Kelly allocator sizes it at 0.5u rather than a reduced stake.
Probabilities are isotonic-calibrated outputs of ASCEND-QX; stakes use quarter-Kelly. Model output is analytical information, not a guarantee of outcome.