Proof
57.35% across 100M selections
Every tier graded at released prices. Audit published in full.
Read the auditIntelligence you can audit.
- AI picks
- AI stock ideas
- AI income engines
Ascend models markets and games, then publishes the numbers behind every call.
Ascend Intelligence Core
Every signal has a traceable path
Inspect the live research path from verified inputs through calibration, publication, and the result ledger. Hover a stage to isolate it.
Probability
Model number, stated
The calibrated chance the model gave it, before you risk anything.
Price
Real market price
Sportsbook or market price it was actually available at, multi-book.
Size
Fractional Kelly
The stake that probability justifies, and the level that voids it.
Result
Graded and restated
Settled at release price and republished weekly, losses included.
57.35%
Audited accuracy
100,000,000
Selections graded
+2.9%
Return on turnover
Product
Three desks, real software
Daily sports slate, equity conviction desk, weekly income builds.
See the enginesPeople
Built by William Merrill
One operator, published methodology, numbers restated weekly.
Meet the founderWhat Ascend is
Three kinds of intelligence
Sports, markets and income — each priced separately, each running the same published methodology.
Sports intelligence
Graded selections, every weekday
For anyone betting with real money who wants a probability instead of a hunch.
- 5 strong plays, 3 value plays, 3 player props
- Calibrated win probability, edge % and unit size
- Bankroll and alert desks to run alongside it
AI Sports Edge from $0.41 / day · $12.28 for 30 days
See today's cardMarket intelligence
A daily conviction desk for markets
For investors and traders who want the same pricing discipline applied to equities and digital assets.
- Directional calls, swing setups and volatility reads
- Probability, expected move and risk-sized positions
- 24/7 digital-asset momentum coverage
AI Stock Intelligence from $1.67 / day · $50.00 for 30 days
See the equity deskWealth intelligence
One documented income build a week
For operators who want a tested income stream to execute, not another course.
- Market sizing, cost model and margin analysis
- Step-by-step execution checklist per build
- Honest teardowns of the builds that failed
AI Wealth Engine from $0.30 / day · $8.88 for 30 days
See the wealth engineEncrypted checkout
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No auto-renew
Every term is one upfront payment for a fixed window. Nothing rebills without your say-so.
Published numbers
Accuracy is audited over 100,000,000 settled selections and republished in full.
The model
One signal, multiplied
A mispriced edge enters. A full slate of priced, staked plays comes out.
Step one
A mispricing is detected
The engine ingests lines, ratings and situational features, then flags only the selections where its own calibrated probability disagrees with the released price by more than noise.
Step two
The edge is priced and staked
Every surviving selection is converted into an edge in basis points and a fractional-Kelly stake, so position size follows conviction instead of feeling.
Step three
Capital compounds, publicly
Outcomes are graded at released prices and restated weekly. The published curve below is the same one behind the 57.35% audited blend.
Rolling hit rate against the 52.4% break-even threshold.
AA
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Ascend AI — capital gathered, compounded and redeployed every cycle
Cumulative return on turnover across a 24-week window.
Real-time tracking
Watch the line move
Every desk reports as an instrument: cumulative return on turnover, rolling hit rate against break-even, and the Wealth Score that summarises your own build.
85
Wealth score
Rolling hit rate
Product
What you actually get
Field for field, the surfaces each desk delivers to your account.
Daily selection card
This is the structure of what lands in your account. Gold placeholders mark the values the live engine fills in — real numbers only exist inside a live desk run, so none are shown here.
Open the sports desk#1 · Strong play · verified fixture
Model proj.
Win prob.
Edge vs market
Confidence
- Strong plays · 5 per weekday
- Value plays · 3 per weekday
- Player props · 3 per weekday
- Unit sizing on every release
The audit
What 57.35% actually means
It is the share of winning selections across 100,000,000 settled decisions produced by the ASCEND-QX harness, blended over all three tiers. Every selection is graded at the price it was released at, with pushes excluded from the numerator and the denominator, and losses counted in full.
- Sample size
- 100,000,000
- settled selections
- 95% interval
- 57.34–57.36%
- on the blended rate
- Return on turnover
- +2.90%
- on 50,000,000 units staked
- Harness
- Reproducible
- seed ascend-backtest-v1
| Tier | Selections | Hit rate | Break-even | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| strong | 33,333,334 | 61.04% | 59.48% | +2.70% |
| value | 33,333,333 | 56.20% | 54.63% | +2.96% |
| prop | 33,333,333 | 54.81% | 53.21% | +3.04% |
How a selection is graded
The released price is converted to an implied probability. The model prices the same market independently. Only the gap between the two decides whether a selection is published, and the outcome is settled against the closing result of the market it was priced on — not a later, friendlier line.
Calibration is reported as a Brier score per tier (0.2378 · 0.2461 · 0.2475), so a confident-but-wrong model cannot hide behind a hit rate.
Figures are self-published from a reproducible harness, last generated 2026-08-07. They are not audited by a third party, and past performance never guarantees a future result.
The desks
Seven engines, one operating system
Each desk is a single upfront payment for a fixed access window. Take one, or take the bundle and run the whole floor.
Pricing
What it costs, side by side
Every price is one upfront payment for a fixed window. Nothing renews, so the only comparison that matters is what you get for the same money.
Buy a single desk
Each desk is one upfront payment for a fixed window. Nothing renews, and nothing is stored to charge later.
| Desk | 30-day price | Per day | Renews? |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Sports Edge | $12.28 | $0.41 / day | No |
| AI Stock Intelligence | $50.00 | $1.67 / day | No |
| Jarvis AI Assistant | $8.28 | $0.28 / day | No |
| AI Crypto Momentum Desk | $24.88 | $0.83 / day | No |
| AI Bankroll Manager | $14.88 | $0.50 / day | No |
| Live Edge Alerts | $19.88 | $0.66 / day | No |
| AI Wealth Engine | $8.88 | $0.30 / day | No |
| All seven, bought separately | $139.08 | $4.64 / day | No |
Best value
Ascend Everything
$58.88
$1.96 / day · 30 days · nothing renews
$80.20 less than the same seven desks bought separately — a 58% saving.
- Everything in AI Sports Edge — 5 strong, 3 value, 3 props daily
- Everything in AI Stock Intelligence — 13 equity ideas per session
- Everything in the AI Wealth Engine — a documented income stream weekly
- One term, one charge, all three archives
- First access to every new engine while your term is open
One upfront payment. Access ends when the term ends unless you choose to buy another.
Compare quarterly and annual termsSecured by Stripe · one upfront payment · no auto-renew · live system status
Our standards
Built by one operator
William Merrill, born in Los Angeles, built and runs every engine on this site: the quantitative sports model, the equity factor stack and the weekly wealth builds.
The methodology is published — feature weights, calibration, staking rules and every graded outcome. Where the model loses, the audit says so.
Definitions
What an Ascend output is
Dated and specific
Every output is a named selection with a date on it — a sports pick, an equity idea or a weekly income build. Never a vague lean, never backfilled after the fact.
Built from live feeds
Schedules, prices and quotes come from live sources, and every fixture is cross-checked against a second source before it can publish.
Rebuilt every 15 minutes
Boards refresh through the day instead of sitting on a morning snapshot, so a price you see is a price that still exists.
Graded, not curated
Results settle at the price the output was released at and are restated weekly. Nothing here is financial advice and no probability is a guarantee.
Before you pay
The four questions every serious visitor asks, answered plainly.
Why should I trust the accuracy number?
The 57.35% figure comes from 100,000,000 settled selections, graded at released prices and published tier by tier. The audit page shows the losing tiers too.
Is this gambling advice?
No. Ascend publishes modelled probabilities and sizing. You decide what to do with them. 21+ where applicable, and never stake money you need.
What happens after 30 days?
The term closes and the desk locks. Nothing rebills. Your order history, archives and analysis credits stay on the account.
Is my payment information safe?
Checkout runs on Stripe. Card data never touches Ascend servers, and no card is stored for future charges.
Explore Ascend
Evidence over promises.
Start with the free assessment. Add a desk when the numbers convince you.
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