Inside ASCEND-WATCH: How Live Edge Alerts Decide Something Changed
An alert is only useful if it separates a real move from noise and tells you how long the number will still be there.
Velocity and confirmation come first
Line Velocity (22%) is the signed move per unit of time since publication. Steam Confirmation (19%) counts how many books move in the same direction inside five minutes, which is the difference between one book correcting an error and the market repricing.
Edge Decay Rate (17%) then measures how quickly the published edge is being priced away, so an alert can say whether the value is eroding or holding.
Attribution stops false alarms
News Attribution (13%) checks whether an injury or lineup release explains the move. A move with a known cause is information; a move without one is often liquidity. Limit Response (14%) reads whether limits widened or tightened afterwards, which tells you how confident the books are in the new number.
Closing Window (15%) is the practical factor: how much time is left before the number is no longer available at all.
Continuous cadence, and honest staleness
This engine runs continuously rather than once a day, and its health state on the public engine page reflects that: it is treated as degraded if a successful run is more than a few hours old, far tighter than the daily engines.
Alerts state what moved, by how much, on how many books, and how long the window is. They do not tell you the outcome, because no alert engine knows it.