How the AI Prediction Model Works
The model does not claim to know a final score. It claims a posted price is wrong by a measurable margin, and stakes proportionally to that margin.
This topic collects the pipeline explainers: feature construction, logistic calibration, de-vigging, edge thresholds and quarter-Kelly sizing.
Reports in this topic
AI Stock Predictions, Graded Against the Tape
An equity call is only checkable if it ships with a price, a target and a level that kills it. Here is how each idea is published and how it settles.
How AI Picks Accuracy Is Actually Measured
A hit rate only means something if you know the grading rule behind it. Here is ours: released price, no retroactive edits, pushes counted separately, every tier shown.
How AI Predicts Sports Outcomes Without Pretending to Know the Score
The model never tries to predict a final score. It estimates a probability, compares it to a price, and acts only when the two disagree by enough.
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