Pirates — Total Runs
Pirates @ Tigers · Baseball · 17:10 UTC
Rolling Form (L10) and Usage & Role are the dominant drivers (Rolling z=-1.16, Usage z=-1.2, Matchup z=-0.92). Composite signal -1.11σ against a market implying 60.8%. Priced at +107 (best of 10 books, ESPN BET) against a de-vigged consensus of 49.1%.
Why this prediction exists
- Model probability
- 53.2%
- Price implied
- 49.1%
- Market consensus
- 49.1%
- Edge vs stricter reference
- +4.1 pts
- Edge needed to publish
- +2.0 pts
- Data quality
- 85/100
- tier calibration is provisional (0 of 60 settled results)
- Model win prob.
- 53.2%
- Market implied
- 49.1%
- Edge
- +4.1%
- Kelly stake
- 0.2u
Key statistical drivers
- Rolling Form (L10)z -1.16
- Usage & Rolez -1.2
- Matchup Ratingz -0.92
Why this is a Strong play, not a Value play
Strong plays require both a calibrated win probability at or above the model's conviction floor and agreement across the top-weighted signals. Here the model lands at 53.2% against an implied 49.1%, giving a wide pricing gap the market has not corrected. Rolling Form (L10), Usage & Role, Matchup Rating all push the same direction, so there is no internal disagreement to discount — which is why the Kelly allocator sizes it at 0.2u rather than a reduced stake.
Why Under 9
The projection sits 1.8 below the posted line of 9. The model takes the Under because the projected distribution clears the number 53.2% of the time, while the price only demands 49.1%. A gap this size is large enough to survive a normal usage or pace swing.
Probabilities are isotonic-calibrated outputs of ASCEND-QX; stakes use quarter-Kelly. Model output is analytical information, not a guarantee of outcome.