ASCEND-EQ 1.0 · sample output

A published equity report, annotated

This is a genuine idea from the Wednesday session — the same format members receive thirteen times per session. Everything below is read straight off the engine; nothing has been rewritten for presentation.

Conviction hit rate

59.1%

Swing hit rate

57%

Blended

57.4%

Avg return / idea

1.47%

The report

#1 · Swing Setup · Digital Advertising

GOOGL — Alphabet

Cash equity · 3 sessions

Short @ 287.38

5.7% of risk capital

Live quote · pre · 21:00 UTC

Target

252.72

Invalidation

314.05

Expected move

12.06%

Win prob.

50.1%

Tape implies 54.1% · edge -4%Confidence 40/100

Price Momentum (20/60d) and Sector Breadth carry the call (Price z=-2.27, Sector z=-2.6, Valuation z=+1.13). Composite signal -0.59σ against a tape implying 54.1% for the same outcome over 3 sessions. Anchored to a live print of 287.38 USD (-0.27% on the session, 53% realised vol). RSI 33, MACD histogram -0.99, 50-day slope -3.44%, relative strength vs SPY -14.77%. Stop set at 1.5x the 20-day ATR (10.26). Measured factors this session: 5 of 8.

Price Momentum (20/60d)z -2.27
Sector Breadthz -2.6
Valuation vs Sectorz +1.13

How to read it

Header — instrument, tier and horizon

Conviction calls run three to ten sessions, swing setups two to five, volatility reads to the next event. The tier tells you how the position should be sized and how long it is meant to be held.

Side and reference price

The price printed is the reference at publication, not a limit order. If the tape has already moved more than a third of the expected move in your favour, the edge is gone — skip it.

Target and invalidation

Target is the modelled level over the stated horizon. Invalidation is the level at which the thesis is wrong, and it is set before publication so the risk is never rationalised after the fact.

Calibrated probability versus the tape

The model probability is compared to the probability already implied by option pricing and realised volatility. Edge is the difference. No positive edge, no publication.

Factor drivers

The three factors doing the most work — weight multiplied by standardised score — are printed on every idea, so you can see whether a call is momentum-led, flow-led or valuation-led.

Position weight

A fractional-Kelly weight expressed as a percentage of risk capital, capped so a single idea can never dominate the book.

Factor weights behind the score

Price Momentum (20/60d)

17%

Earnings Revision Breadth

16%

Valuation vs Sector

14%

Institutional Flow

13%

Options Skew & Gamma

12%

Macro Regime Sensitivity

11%

Sector Breadth

10%

Positioning & Sentiment

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