ASCEND-EQ 1.0 · sample output

A published equity report, annotated

This is a genuine idea from the Tuesday session — the same format members receive thirteen times per session. Everything below is read straight off the engine; nothing has been rewritten for presentation.

Conviction hit rate

59.4%

Swing hit rate

55.8%

Blended

56.9%

Avg return / idea

1.46%

The report

#1 · Conviction Call · Financials

XLF — Financials Sector ETF

Delta-one · 1 month

Long @ 48.52

6% of risk capital

Target

51.02

Invalidation

46.96

Expected move

5.15%

Win prob.

62.7%

Tape implies 59.7% · edge +3%Confidence 81/100

Valuation vs Sector and Sector Breadth carry the call (Valuation z=+1.99, Sector z=-1.59, Macro z=+0.88). Composite signal +1.18σ against a tape implying 59.7% for the same outcome over 1 month.

Valuation vs Sectorz +1.99
Sector Breadthz -1.59
Macro Regime Sensitivityz +0.88

How to read it

Header — instrument, tier and horizon

Conviction calls run three to ten sessions, swing setups two to five, volatility reads to the next event. The tier tells you how the position should be sized and how long it is meant to be held.

Side and reference price

The price printed is the reference at publication, not a limit order. If the tape has already moved more than a third of the expected move in your favour, the edge is gone — skip it.

Target and invalidation

Target is the modelled level over the stated horizon. Invalidation is the level at which the thesis is wrong, and it is set before publication so the risk is never rationalised after the fact.

Calibrated probability versus the tape

The model probability is compared to the probability already implied by option pricing and realised volatility. Edge is the difference. No positive edge, no publication.

Factor drivers

The three factors doing the most work — weight multiplied by standardised score — are printed on every idea, so you can see whether a call is momentum-led, flow-led or valuation-led.

Position weight

A fractional-Kelly weight expressed as a percentage of risk capital, capped so a single idea can never dominate the book.

Factor weights behind the score

Price Momentum (20/60d)

17%

Earnings Revision Breadth

16%

Valuation vs Sector

14%

Institutional Flow

13%

Options Skew & Gamma

12%

Macro Regime Sensitivity

11%

Sector Breadth

10%

Positioning & Sentiment

Want all thirteen every session?

$50 upfront for a month of the full equity desk. Nothing renews.

Product details Unlock the desk